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Gold price at $10k, silver at $500???


Dakota Slim

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Gold price at $10k, silver at $500 due to 'a decade of shortage', says Goehring & Rozencwajg

Goehring is expecting gold to reach $10,000 an ounce by the end of the decade. And for silver to eventually catch up and trade around $500 an ounce.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-12-01/Gold-price-at-10k-silver-at-500-due-to-a-decade-of-shortage-says-Goehring-Rozencwajg.html

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8 hours ago, Dakota Slim said:

Gold price at $10k, silver at $500 due to 'a decade of shortage', says Goehring & Rozencwajg

Goehring is expecting gold to reach $10,000 an ounce by the end of the decade. And for silver to eventually catch up and trade around $500 an ounce.

https://www.kitco.com/news/2021-12-01/Gold-price-at-10k-silver-at-500-due-to-a-decade-of-shortage-says-Goehring-Rozencwajg.html

If I trusted all this speculation I should start buying up some more gold and silver...but the last time such speculation was going on I bought a bunch and it took 3 times as long to even come close to what was speculated...at least now I'm up on the + side now but I don't think I could wait or even be around 10 to 20 years from now to earn the profits from this round of speculation!!

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1 hour ago, Au Seeker said:

If I trusted all this speculation I should start buying up some more gold and silver...but the last time such speculation was going on I bought a bunch and it took 3 times as long to even come close to what was speculated...at least now I'm up on the + side now but I don't think I could wait or even be around 10 to 20 years from now to earn the profits from this round of speculation!!

Yeah, with all this recent inflation one would think gold would have gone up somewhat but it has been pretty stable. Gold is the same price today as it was in Sept. 2012 and it was under 1100 in 2015. If I was an investment fund manager I'd look elsewhere. 

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One would think that in a global economy with the price of gold that high a dollar wouldn't be worth much. 

At that point it really wouldn't matter how high the price of gold was would it?

It's kind of like cutting the short end of a rope off and tying it to the other end to make it longer. 

It seems that in a world where gold was worth $10K an ounce people would be fighting over bread and bullets. The gold would be rather worthless unless you found someone with money to buy it. And then when they did you would have just enough money to buy a loaf of bread and a few bullets.

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I can't envision prices that high in such a short timespan. People will sell their jewelry, coins, bars to  recycle back into the system thereby keeping the prices somewhat stable. Prices will go up gradually over time but not that much.

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Reading that whole article, I was waiting for the link to click or the phone number to buy now before its too late.

I will make an boring, rather mundane prediction.  Gold will hit $1500 per ounce next year.

I don’t know about industrial demand which the majority of the price aside from speculation comes form, but to me, people seem less interested in jewelry and gold jewelry and I’m seeing quite a bit more of other metals.  I think the real price of gold is at around $1k per ounce, but I’m adjusting that upwards for inflation to 1.5K ore ounce.

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$10k by the end of the decade??? Maybe, maybe not… if the govt. continues printing and pumping money into the economy at the rate they’ve been doing the last couple years, combined with bad policies and repressive regulations, inflation could actually exceed the 10k per oz. mark…

 The inflation we’re seeing now is just a teaser of where we’ll be this time next year…

 Throw China and Russia into mix with their military and geopolitical ambitions at play and who knows???

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7 hours ago, chrisski said:

Reading that whole article, I was waiting for the link to click or the phone number to buy now before its too late.

I will make an boring, rather mundane prediction.  Gold will hit $1500 per ounce next year.

I don’t know about industrial demand which the majority of the price aside from speculation comes form, but to me, people seem less interested in jewelry and gold jewelry and I’m seeing quite a bit more of other metals.  I think the real price of gold is at around $1k per ounce, but I’m adjusting that upwards for inflation to 1.5K ore ounce.

Chrisski,

Since gold right now is almost $300 more than your $1500 prediction, so are you saying the price of gold is going to drop to $1500 next year?

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Yes I do think gold will drop. 

I think it is way overvalued now.  I thought it was overvalued when last year we posted about it hitting $2000.  Way too much of the value is tied up in investment, and as other “safe” investments like block gain crypto currencies become popular demand for gold will go down.  Some of the real uses for it like jewelry will also cause it to go down as more and more Tungsten and Platinum and other Jewelry becomes more popular than gold.  THe last two or three years, production has been fallowing.  Something like 20% off the peak.  I know supply demand says that low production means high prices, but I really think he “Demand curve” is sliding.

If it weren’t for high inflation, I would expect gold to slip even more.

This is a 2020 chart that shows that nearly all gold is used in investment:

50FFF0A2-16B8-4E71-B976-DF3481674B3A.png

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10 hours ago, chrisski said:

Yes I do think gold will drop. 

I think it is way overvalued now.  I thought it was overvalued when last year we posted about it hitting $2000.  Way too much of the value is tied up in investment, and as other “safe” investments like block gain crypto currencies become popular demand for gold will go down.  Some of the real uses for it like jewelry will also cause it to go down as more and more Tungsten and Platinum and other Jewelry becomes more popular than gold.  THe last two or three years, production has been fallowing.  Something like 20% off the peak.  I know supply demand says that low production means high prices, but I really think he “Demand curve” is sliding.

If it weren’t for high inflation, I would expect gold to slip even more.

This is a 2020 chart that shows that nearly all gold is used in investment:

50FFF0A2-16B8-4E71-B976-DF3481674B3A.png

You are spot on Chris. Gold's value is in investors. Not the actual metal. And those investors are often not the "investor class".

Gold is something that people without the money to invest, invest in. It is actually a poor investment when compared to a lot of other things at the lower income levels.

 

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With all this attention towards climate change and the green deal wouldn't gold and especially silver be higher in the near future do to demand in industry? It seems silver would be the better investment and more affordable, some call it the poor mans gold. The growth in China and for that matter the rest of the emerging economies globally will surely increase demand hence price will go up.

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With such a large amount of gold held up in investment, I wonder how much of it is physically held either by the owners or a “Backed by Physical Gold” fund.  

I can’t find the article now but I’d read or heard on the radio that a lot of these investments investors or the company don’t hold don’t actually hold physical gold.  Kind of like a saying you have the amount of money left to charge on your credit card or the an accepted financial instrument like the required reserve in a bank to determine how much money can be loaned out.  With gold, the investment company does that by investing in gold futures, or perhaps (not positive about this) investing in other gold traded ETFs.

To me that seems like either a pyramid scheme or government math.  That to me is what drives the price of gold up and down.

There are a lot of people, I’m sure dozens on this board that invest in Bitcoin.  Not buying a bitcoin each day for $47k, but maybe getting the bitcoin index fund.  So much so that I expect a lot of investor money is leaving what we consider to be these markets Ike gold.

I don’t believe in Bitcoin as an investment; I don’t see what it does.  Looks like a giant pyramid scheme to me waiting to come crashing down.  I wonder how much of that 50% of gold held in investment is the same way.

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23 minutes ago, chrisski said:

With such a large amount of gold held up in investment, I wonder how much of it is physically held either by the owners or a “Backed by Physical Gold” fund.  

I can’t find the article now but I’d read or heard on the radio that a lot of these investments investors or the company don’t hold don’t actually hold physical gold.  Kind of like a saying you have the amount of money left to charge on your credit card or the an accepted financial instrument like the required reserve in a bank to determine how much money can be loaned out.  With gold, the investment company does that by investing in gold futures, or perhaps (not positive about this) investing in other gold traded ETFs.

To me that seems like either a pyramid scheme or government math.  That to me is what drives the price of gold up and down.

There are a lot of people, I’m sure dozens on this board that invest in Bitcoin.  Not buying a bitcoin each day for $47k, but maybe getting the bitcoin index fund.  So much so that I expect a lot of investor money is leaving what we consider to be these markets Ike gold.

I don’t believe in Bitcoin as an investment; I don’t see what it does.  Looks like a giant pyramid scheme to me waiting to come crashing down.  I wonder how much of that 50% of gold held in investment is the same way.

Again you are spot on. Most investments in gold involve no gold. Just a fund where you gamble on the price of gold. 

It's like a football pool. No footballs involved. Just a bunch of guys betting on the points spread.

Buying physical gold is one thing. Investing in "gold" in some sort of fund is entirely different. And THAT is what drives the price of "gold" more than any other factor.

 

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Well at least gold keeps up with inflation , I mean would anyone rather hold that 20 dollar bill from 1920s or one ounce of gold that could have been purchased for 20 back in  the 1920's. I know you cant eat gold nor silver, but if you look at past history gold ,silver and diamonds have been a way for people to start over again and get their feet off the ground. I once knew of a family form Vietnam who were refugees after the war. They managed to escape, the father had a belt he wore around his torso full of gold bars, they were thin and long, when he came to America he sold it and started a bakery. Today his children are all educated and have great jobs. Without the gold ,he would have struggled working at some job. 

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7 hours ago, Relichunter2016 said:

Well at least gold keeps up with inflation , I mean would anyone rather hold that 20 dollar bill from 1920s or one ounce of gold that could have been purchased for 20 back in  the 1920's. I know you cant eat gold nor silver, but if you look at past history gold ,silver and diamonds have been a way for people to start over again and get their feet off the ground. I once knew of a family form Vietnam who were refugees after the war. They managed to escape, the father had a belt he wore around his torso full of gold bars, they were thin and long, when he came to America he sold it and started a bakery. Today his children are all educated and have great jobs. Without the gold ,he would have struggled working at some job. 

A lot has changed in the last 100 years, both here in the US and around the globe... 

Venezuela introduces new currency, drops six zeros

As of Friday, seven one-million bolivar notes – the highest denomination and very hard to come by – were required to pay in cash for one loaf of bread.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/10/1/venezuela-introduces-new-currency-drops-six-zeros

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Just now, Dakota Slim said:

A lot has changed in the last 100 years, both here in the US and around the globe... 

Venezuela introduces new currency, drops six zeros

As of Friday, seven one-million bolivar notes – the highest denomination and very hard to come by – were required to pay in cash for one loaf of bread.
https://www.aljazeera.com/economy/2021/10/1/venezuela-introduces-new-currency-drops-six-zeros

Venezuela's export oil business is .99% of their export revenue,  25% of their gross GNP, add oil sanctions on them and you can see how fast an economy can fall. Their economic fall started prior to oil sanctions but it sure doesn't help. Inflation, inflation, inflation....gold will hit 2,500 within 2 years. 

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  • 3 weeks later...

Once the Federal Reserve begins rate hikes gold & silver will drop along with other commodities. I hate crypto but am convinced it has hurt gold prices which should have gone much higher with all the debt & stimulus. Gold has actually failed to keep up with inflation. It's more insurance against a doomsday scenario in my opinion & everyone should own some & forget about it. 

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