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Beeper Bob

My new year prediction

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The possibility of conflict with Iran is going to drive gold prices way up this year. Hang on to your gold it will break the $1800.00 mark.  Unfortunately fuel prices are likely to rise.

Bob

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I’m not too sure about a price increase being tied to Iran..  Over the last couple of years the reliance on foreign oil has dropped to the point where we are a net exporter of oil.  Iran could freeze out the whole gulf, but not have the same effect it did even a couple of years ago.

After reading your post, I looked at some gold trends, and no ups and downs seem to be tied to the invasion of Iraq, Afghanistan, or Syria. In 2001, looks like the gold price went up from about $400 to what it is now.  That kind of looks like the same time as the 9.11, but I think its got more to do with out of control spending, which the War contributes, but there’s a lot more deficit spending starting with Bush for other government programs.

My prediction is whatever Iran does, I will be spending close to $3 for diesel at the pumps, and gold will continue going up a little, but not $1800 by year’s end.

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Whether we export more oil than we use has very little bearing on oil prices. Oil prices will go up and our exported oil will be worth more on the international market.

So yippee! U.S. oil will be worth more! So big oil companies and investors in big oil companies will profit big time. 

But the consumers and the average Joe will pay more for gasoline at the pump. And they will also pay for security issues abroad. So the average Joe pays more coming and going. And big oil reaps the benefits of a secure source of oil that is suddenly worth much more.

If there is more conflict we will surely hit their export capabilities. That increases the price of oil even more.it makes American oil worth more and it forces Americans to pay more, even though we are an exporter of oil.

If an investor in Europe buys 4% of the world's gold it makes Arizona gold worth more and buyers have to pay more for it. 

If 4% of the world's annual oil production is threatened it makes oil everywhere worth more and everyone pays more for gas. 

A secure oil supply is a bunch more profitable than one that U.S. military isn't targeting. Likewise with the ones Iran isn't targeting. So oil companies stand to make good money on their US interests. And the young men and women of the military will lay their lives down to secure their interests in Iraq as well. So for the privileged few this is going to be a huge money maker. For most of us we will pay a few hundred dollars more in gas and taxes and loose a few more sons and daughters. 

 

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2 hours ago, chrisski said:

I’m not too sure about a price increase being tied to Iran..  Over the last couple of years the reliance on foreign oil has dropped to the point where we are a net exporter of oil.  Iran could freeze out the whole gulf, but not have the same effect it did even a couple of years ago.

After reading your post, I looked at some gold trends, and no ups and downs seem to be tied to the invasion of Iraq, Afghanistan, or Syria. In 2001, looks like the gold price went up from about $400 to what it is now.  That kind of looks like the same time as the 9.11, but I think its got more to do with out of control spending, which the War contributes, but there’s a lot more deficit spending starting with Bush for other government programs.

My prediction is whatever Iran does, I will be spending close to $3 for diesel at the pumps, and gold will continue going up a little, but not $1800 by year’s end.

The historical weaknesses in the hedge with regards to oil and gold prices doesn't seem to be there as a significant effect compared to previous administration policies. Deregulation and technological expansion of resource development etc, has been proven to contribute to a reasonable stability of the worlds oil market to the point of an all time glut as in in the recent past. Iran and the Emirates are considered to be much less of a factor in present and future global price of petroleum, even with instability in the region.

 

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Dont forget Iran and Russia are joined at the hip.

If you think a direct military conflict with Iran under our current leadership is going to follow the same pattern as sanctions and diplomacy under previous administrations then I would disagree. For all the obvious reasons.

This is not a good move strategically or economically. It could only benefit politicians and power brokers and put our sons and daughters in harm's way.

As far as gold prices go who knows and who cares. The meager profit that any of us could realize from an increase in value would be miniscule compared to the losses we will suffer if we have military conflict with Iran. We have very little to gain and much to loose. 

We will send thousands to the region to offset the security issues this move has created. Thousands more to support the conflict. And we will soon realize that we will not only have to protect our citizens, allies and business interests abroad but also on our own turf. 

A collosal mistake regardless of how it affects gold and oil prices.

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4 minutes ago, Bedrock Bob said:

Dont forget Iran and Russia are joined at the hip.

If you think a direct military conflict with Iran under our current leadership is going to follow the same pattern as sanctions and diplomacy under previous administrations then I would disagree. For all the obvious reasons.

This is not a good move strategically or economically. It could only benefit politicians and power brokers and put our sons and daughters in harm's way.

As far as gold prices go who knows and who cares. The meager profit that any of us could realize from an increase in value would be miniscule compared to the losses we will suffer if we have military conflict with Iran. We have very little to gain and much to loose. 

We will send thousands to the region to offset the security issues this move has created. Thousands more to support the conflict. And we will soon realize that we will not only have to protect our business interests abroad but also on our own turf. 

A collosal mistake regardless of how it affects gold and oil prices.

Not sure what colossal mistake you're talking about, but I'm assuming its the bombing at Baghdad airport of the Iranian general.  Assuming that Iran is responsible for 17% of US deaths during the Iraq war https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/01/03/trump-says-theres-no-intent-to-start-a-war-with-iran-heres-where-things-stand/, and also helped organize the raid on the US embassy, what should we do in retaliation?

Remember getting a lecture from a mid-East professor a few days after the Sep 11 attacks who said it was not a good idea to invade the mid-east, but he had no recommendation about what should be done for the Sep 11 attacks.

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1 minute ago, chrisski said:

Not sure what colossal mistake you're talking about, but I'm assuming its the bombing at Baghdad airport of the Iranian general.  Assuming that Iran is responsible for 17% of US deaths during the Iraq war https://www.militarytimes.com/news/your-military/2020/01/03/trump-says-theres-no-intent-to-start-a-war-with-iran-heres-where-things-stand/, and also helped organize the raid on the US embassy, what should we do in retaliation?

Remember getting a lecture from a mid-East professor a few days after the Sep 11 attacks who said it was not a good idea to invade the mid-east, but he had no recommendation about what should be done for the Sep 11 attacks.

If you are needing revenge and retaliation then the strategy was perfect.

If you want security and are working toward peace and balance in the region the plan sucks.

The entire world is less secure because of this decision. The motives for the entire upheaval in Iran policy are crystal clear from the time we decided to withdraw from the treaty and not backfill with any coherent policy. Things were not perfect under the treaty but it was a heck of a lot better than what we have now. And things aren't going to get any better.

So I will leave it up to you to decide if what we are doing is the best way to handle it. From where I am standing it is a risky move that puts our military in a really bad defensive position with nothing to gain except political cover for a bunch of politicians that are worried sick about loosing power in the upcoming election.

 

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No-one  has the slightest clue what is going to happen. This in itself should give pause to anyone who is watching the shifting sands on the world stage.  There is no strategy and no policy in place. The unintended consequences are showing up all over the world. It's ridiculous and dangerous 'governing.' 

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My prediction is mostly intuition. Geopolitical uncertainty will certainly cause investors to choose gold as a safe haven. I do think that $1800.00 a ounce is very possible this year. Just my opinion. We will have to wait and see.

Bob

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1 hour ago, Bedrock Bob said:

If you are needing revenge and retaliation then the strategy was perfect.

If you want security and are working toward peace and balance in the region the plan sucks.

The entire world is less secure because of this decision. The motives for the entire upheaval in Iran policy are crystal clear from the time we decided to withdraw from the treaty and not backfill with any coherent policy. Things were not perfect under the treaty but it was a heck of a lot better than what we have now. And things aren't going to get any better.

So I will leave it up to you to decide if what we are doing is the best way to handle it. From where I am standing it is a risky move that puts our military in a really bad defensive position with nothing to gain except political cover for a bunch of politicians that are worried sick about loosing power in the upcoming election.

 

I appreciate the honest opinion.

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No doubt investors will invest in gold and the value will increase.

No doubt 90% of Americans are below the income level to invest. They struggle to feed themselves working 80 hours a week. They spend every dime they make just to survive.

No doubt the class of American who invests will have no skin in the game if Iran retaliates (and they will).

The investor class just does not enlist in the military. Nor do their children.

Education is the number one reason the working class enlists and populates our military. They do it to be able to afford education.

The majority of the fighting men and women will come from an entirely different class than those who benefit from higher gold and oil prices. Conflict with Iran will enrich the upper class at the cost of the lives of the working class.

This is the price our leaders have decided to pay for power and money. It is the same political muck it has always been but now it is magnified exponentially by our greedy and selfish leadership. We set out to drain the swamp but the folks we elected to drain it seem to be having a pool party. 

 

 

 

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Not to sound one sided or anything BUT not one of us was sitting at that table in the war room. We all know there is stuff we are not told when it comes to intelligence and government security. Unless we are involved and were there, then all we can do is sit back and speculate on why we did it. And as we all know, speculation is not good. Facts rule the day and as of now we have no facts other than what the government has told us. I definitely did not type this to stir things up, because i have the utmost respect for you all. Thats just my opinion on the situation. Let the gold price soar. Take care everyone. 

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Facts rule the day. Unless alternative facts rule.

Our "most transparent administration" has refused to give the people the facts on a whole bunch of things. Even basic stuff like policy positions. Not to mention the subject of talks with the leaders of hostile governments, deals with foreign players and sources of income.

If anyone is holding their breath waiting for facts, logic or explanations about the decisions being made they will be at it forever.

That is the whole problem here. The motives behind a whole bunch of flaky looking decisions are obscured with no indication the "facts" surrounding them will ever be revealed. The flaky and corrupt appearing behavior just multiplies and we are fed easily provable lies. Lots of them. In rapid fire succession. The only reality that has been offered is "get used to it".

That is completely in contrast to what most Americans want from their leadership. Especially when situations indicate our sons and daughters will potentially be put in harm's way.

No, we don't know. Yes we are in the dark. That is by design and is the way this "most transparent" administration operates. That my friend is a much larger problem than the prospect of military conflict.

 

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The facts are that no recent administration has told us the truth. We have all seen how easily the truth is bent to fit the narrative. What is different in these latest instances (the Syria Kurd abandonment and drone killing Soleimani), is the purposeful cutting out of the other branches of government, not only in decision-making but in the information needed for basic decision-making. Although that too has happened in the past, it's never been to this degree, and it is the degree that is rendering large portions of our past ways of accepted governing, inoperative. That is a real problem.

Also, warfare as we have known it has changed incredibly. Combat is mostly asymmetrical now and increasingly electronic. Mind yer computers folks, cyber warfare could be a real game changer and not only are we are not ready, but the government is eye-poppingly behind the times as far as protecting infrastructure goes. Sure they're good at the NSA-type stuff, but as far as protecting the population is concerned they have simply let the hardening of our systems fall by the wayside. Some think purposeful but it largely seems to be ineptitude and lack of concern.

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We live in a democracy. We vote for someone whom we do not know, to represent us for the next two or four years. They make decisions for us without asking our opinions and  we suffer the consequences. We  can complain among ourselves but to no avail. When you have two people there will be differences of opinions. Some will settle peacefully and some .......BOOM!   Do not ask me who I will vote for next. I am not qualified to pick from people I don't know.........and don't believe.

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OK we have gone from speculating on the price of gold at year's end to now politics.....we all know the rules on that subject here on Bill's forum...it's time to step back behind the line we have stepped over!! 

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Trying to separate the future of the price of gold from the political realities that influence it is like trying to separate the tomatoes from the catsup.

I know we cannot discuss the elephant in the room because some can't control their intolerance for opinions that differ with theirs. IMHO we should restrict intolerance and insults. Not the topic of conversation. 

 

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9 minutes ago, Bedrock Bob said:

Trying to separate the future of the price of gold from the political realities that influence it is like trying to separate the tomatoes from the catsup.

I know we cannot discuss the elephant in the room because some can't control their intolerance for opinions that differ with theirs. IMHO we should restrict intolerance and insults. Not the topic of conversation. 

 

I agree to a point...but it still remains that this is Bill's forum and he has rules for posting on the forum, for the most part there's not that many rules but the ones that are in place are there for a reason and unless Bill changes them they will be enforced, I do as most know allow a little bending of those rules but I have to curb it at some point.

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I do like to hear a different opinion sometimes.  Kind of tempers the course when I wander off a little.  I hadn't realized it, but was surrounded with people that thought a lot like me for years.  I finally met someone who had a different opinion, in this case he thought the war in Iraq was wrong.  I eventually discovered I had libertarian tendencies.

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31 minutes ago, Au Seeker said:

I agree to a point...but it still remains that this is Bill's forum and he has rules for posting on the forum, for the most part there's not that many rules but the ones that are in place are there for a reason and unless Bill changes them they will be enforced, I do as most know allow a little bending of those rules but I have to curb it at some point.

No problem at all Skip. Just stating an opinion.

The same guys start the insults on just about any topic if you disagree with them. I agree the political topics cause more trouble. But that is nothing but a trigger for their intolerance. 

Lots of guys have internalized the political screed and actually believe those that disagree with their extreme positions are the enemy. Less patriotic, support crime, treasonous and all the rest. Our excellent leader echoes these thoughts daily. They are proud of the belief that their fellow American is their worst enemy. That is what makes them extreme enough to belong in their group. 

An honest exchange of ideas is what we need in this country. It seems that both sides get pissy as soon as they must be honest about why they embrace them.

I don't agree with either extreme. Very few do. But it is the extreme idealists that prevent any constructive discussion that may not be in line with their deeply held convictions. We avoid discussion even prohibit it because of the tantrums they throw when anyone presents a valid argument that does not mesh with their beliefs.

It is sad that intelligent men are stifled because of the whine of a few ignorant and extreme idealists.

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If Trump is not re-elected, Gold will top $2,000.00 an ounce overnight.

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Terry, that is silly. Let's try not to binge on unfounded opinion.

 

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5 minutes ago, Terry Soloman said:

If Trump is not re-elected, Gold will top $2,000.00 an ounce overnight.

One more good reason not to vote for him! 

The list just goes on and on don't it?

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Metal prices are self-correcting, somewhat, overtime, as rising prices bring more production/ supply into the market to handle increasing demand.

To be sure, there are idled mines with stockpiles of ore awaiting processing if only they could increase their margin.  Either prices for metal go up, or processing costs go down due to lower energy costs will increase margin.

Note: my first sentence that I stated "somewhat"...

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19 hours ago, Au Seeker said:

I agree to a point...but it still remains that this is Bill's forum and he has rules for posting on the forum, for the most part there's not that many rules but the ones that are in place are there for a reason and unless Bill changes them they will be enforced, I do as most know allow a little bending of those rules but I have to curb it at some point.

Better late than never . . .

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