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1 hour ago, Bedrock Bob said:

It is amazing how far they land from some of the people who see the fireball. It tells me the trajectory and distance is highly variable from an observed fall.

Eye-witness testimony to any event, contrary to popular belief, is mostly unreliable.  This has been well documented with respect to criminal prosectutions, e.g.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/do-the-eyes-have-it/

https://www.apa.org/monitor/apr06/eyewitness.aspx

etc.

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1 hour ago, Mikestang said:

Eye-witness testimony to any event, contrary to popular belief, is mostly unreliable.  This has been well documented with respect to criminal prosectutions, e.g.

https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/do-the-eyes-have-it/

https://www.apa.org/monitor/apr06/eyewitness.aspx

etc.

I think if you get multiple opinions you might be able to see some commonalities that could lead to some general assumptions. That is about the best you can do.

The only eyewitness account that carries much weight is my own. And I don't think his opinion is worth two squirts and a shake. 

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To give reference to how loud something has to be to be heard and in my mind how powerful these meteor explosions are:

Thunder can be heard about one mile.  Count the number of seconds, very rarely do you hear thunder from a flash of lightening more than 5 seconds (5 X 1100 feet away).

Gunshots can be heard about as far as lightening.  Further than a mile from the range, I don't really here the shots except for sometime in the early morning.

At some point, you can no longer hear a jet flying, I don't know exactly how high, but I can't hear jets that are flying at 45k. I know I can hear jets faintly at 10 k.  Can't hear a C-130 at ground level flying at 25k.

Under normal circumstances, I could not here a mortar explosion a mile, but if the view was unobstructed, I could here from about 3 miles.  Artillery was about 5 miles, perhaps more, I just never saw it form that far.  A 500 LBS bomb I've hear from 10 miles away, others have reported 2000 LBS bombs at 35 miles away.

Meteors tend to burn up in the Mesosphere (35 miles to 64 miles).

I was watching a meteor storm from about 10,000 feet above sea level, and heard one hiss.  If that did burn up in the mesosphere, I wonder how loud it really was, especially with no breathable air up there.

 

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I spend a lot of time in the mesosphere and I can tell you it gets pretty loud sometimes.

There would be a sound at detonation as well the object making noise flying through the air. Plus the noise of the object impacting. I personally think that is why the sound is so complex. One sound is up high from the explosion and the others are caused by any remaining object(s) travelling out of it. So some sounds are localized up high and some are being generated over the trajectory. Some are localized at impact.

Downrange of a bullet you hear the bullet and then the impact and then the report. That would be the same sequence you would hear a meteorite wouldn't it? The object is (presumably) in front of the sound waves so you would hear the hiss if the object, the sound of impact and then the sound of the bolide opposite the direction of the impact. Depending on the speed decay and your position between the bolide and the impact that sequence could change or come together almost simultaneously making for some confusing sounds coming from all directions at once.

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As a teen age kid I seen one one time and could have sworn it landed just on the north side of the Santa Catalina Mt of Tucson.   Silhouetted the whole Mt Range.  As it turned out people in Iowa seen the same thing to the North  east of them.    Visual Perspective does not work.  

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I've seen a few drop in my life. Could've sworn they landed a mile or two away. Only to find out on the news each time the landing zone was several hundred miles away. Same goes for the rocket launches out of Vandenberg. They appear to be over head, when in fact they were launched 1k miles away.

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Best bet - Allsky Camera's, triangulation, dark flight calculation, sonics, doppler = possible find.

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11 hours ago, Bedrock Bob said:

 

Downrange of a bullet you hear the bullet and then the impact and then the report. That would be the same sequence you would hear a meteorite wouldn't it?

Good point, sitting at the training range, first thing I'd hear is the bullets going overhead with the supersonic crack, then impacting the target, and then coming out of the airplane. 

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On 10/10/2018 at 10:28 AM, Bedrock Bob said:

What do you base that hypothesis on? Entry angle? Size? The compass heading of the fall? 

Unless a radio telescope can give us a fix on the last spot the radio waves were observed we are stuck with a trajectory calculation based on very limited data.  The more variables we can define in that calculation the closer our guess will be. "Just a guess" means that one or more of the factors that determine trajectory have been estimated. I would say a wild guess would assume all of the factors. An educated guess would only assume some. Where does your guess fit in this range?

Since we are constantly looking for a spot to swing the detector or hunt by eye we must ask ourselves very bluntly how many of those factors in the equation we have actually taken into account, how many are assumed and if we have enough data to justify a search. 

I have no data other than what the OP posted. My guess is it passed directly over San Diego in dark flight and splashed into the ocean precisely 1.7 miles offshore in 240 feet of water. It was a stony iron pallasite that weighed 35 pounds. It has a beautiful fusion crust and a full rollover lip on the edges of an oriented shield. Lots of contour and olivine sticking out everywhere. And it made a hissing sound as it flew through the air. But that is just my guess and that is only possible because I filled in all of the variables in the calculation with numbers that sounded good to me.

It was possible to make this guess because I had no data at all to assign to the variables in the calculation. Since it landed in the ocean it does not bother me that I don't have enough info to mount a search. If it is out there by Safford somewhere I will think about it a lot because it is a very beautiful and valuable pallasite. So I need to know how many of those variables that you took into account to come up with your guess.

 

It was headed east from where I live, I doubt if it made a U-turn for the ocean.

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18 minutes ago, bc5391 said:

It was headed east from where I live, I doubt if it made a U-turn for the ocean.

Well that just goes to show how valuable eye witness accounts are! Because the one we are talking about was headed west from Tucson! And I don't think it made a U-turn and headed toward Safford! :25r30wi:

Even if the one that you observed was headed east the question still remains... What data did you use to estimate the fall site? Was it just an off-the-cuff guess based on your best intuitions? Would you bet 3-4 days searching that your guess was correct?

How many variables in the calculation were known and how many were wild guesses? Or was it just a wild guess without even considering the variables? I think these are the questions we must all answer when observing a fireball and hazarding a guess as to where it landed.

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23 minutes ago, Bedrock Bob said:

And I don't think it made a U-turn and headed toward Safford! :25r30wi:

Unless it hit one of those interstate power lines and slingshotted back the other direction.  Such things can really happen.  I eyewitnessed it on the Roadrunner cartoon.

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The coyote was a great inspiration to me. 

In 1988 I took a brush and painted a gold mine into the side of a sheer cliff and found a wealth of nuggets. Things were sailing right along until a cloudburst came along and washed the paint off while I was down in the mine. I was trapped underground for twelve days surviving on nothing but nepheline syenite and mango juice. I narrowly escaped death when a small earthquake broke the rock and allowed me to dig my way out. 

Since that day I have never entered a mine unless the paint was completely dry and there are no clouds in the sky. And I always take a few brushes down with me in case I need to paint my way out. 

That is proof positive that this particular meteor that Tom saw heading west from Tucson was probably directed back in a northeasterly direction by those power lines that run up the east side of the mountains. That explains the eye witness account of it headed east toward Safford not too long afterward. It all fits perfectly into place!

I am almost certain the power flickered a little. My alarm clock was blinking here in New Mexico. It must have really stretched those wires tight! 

I'm getting a motel reservation in Safford right now before they are all booked. No doubt all the big name meteorite hunting salamis will be converging on the place looking for that pretty, pallasitic piece of prospector porn! 

:arrowheadsmiley:

 

 

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5 hours ago, Bedrock Bob said:

Well that just goes to show how valuable eye witness accounts are! Because the one we are talking about was headed west from Tucson! And I don't think it made a U-turn and headed toward Safford! :25r30wi:

Even if the one that you observed was headed east the question still remains... What data did you use to estimate the fall site? Was it just an off-the-cuff guess based on your best intuitions? Would you bet 3-4 days searching that your guess was correct?

How many variables in the calculation were known and how many were wild guesses? Or was it just a wild guess without even considering the variables? I think these are the questions we must all answer when observing a fireball and hazarding a guess as to where it landed.

I put my thumb in the sky and took a wild guess, isn't that what you asked? You think people have time to run into the garage and pull out a telescope, set it up, take measurements of the angle of the dangle when a rock falls from the sky. Spend some time outside on a clear night , they fall all the time in every direction.

On 10/7/2018 at 3:42 PM, Bedrock Bob said:

How far do you think the stones travelled after it exploded? One mile? Ten miles? A hundred miles?

As a meteorite hunter isn't that the burning question?

.

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10 hours ago, bc5391 said:

I put my thumb in the sky and took a wild guess, isn't that what you asked? You think people have time to run into the garage and pull out a telescope, set it up, take measurements of the angle of the dangle when a rock falls from the sky. Spend some time outside on a clear night , they fall all the time in every direction.

 

.

I just thought you might like to discuss the stuff of meteorite hunting. I didn't realize it would cause you so much distress.

I'm sorry my inquiry bothered you. These are the same questions that meteorite hunters ask themselves every time they see a fireball. I just wondered how you came to your conclusion and thought we might discuss how a fellow might narrow that guess down as much as possible.

Since you suggested a location I thought we could discuss it. If that discussion is off limits then that is fine by me. 

Edited by Bedrock Bob
Ibuprofen will reduce the redness and swelling caused by my brutal inquisition.

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Now, Bob;

it ain't always easy to know where sarcasm starts and meaningful inquiry begins-or maybe the other way around...

anyway....

once I was in the Dale District with Bob Verish. I was looking toward the south or west when a fireball travelled from  left to right for a few seconds. VERY FAST!

My guess is it is somewhere in the Pacific Ocean....I don't recall the date and never seen any reports that I recall. The most interesting thing was that it was moving pretty much parallel with the horizon... 

fred

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