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Tiangong 1 Reentry

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Tiangong 1’s decaying orbit strongly favors a northern hemisphere reentry point. On each of its passes into the northern hemisphere the satellite drops to its lowest perigee latitude at about 30.5+ degrees north. It should be at this latitude that will begin to reenter the Earth’s atmosphere. It will drop further over the next 2000 miles or so until it reaches about 62 miles high and begins to burn up. Major breakup will occur at about 48-45 miles high.  I would expect it to be observed and pieces fall somewhere between 36+ and 42+ north latitude. This part of the Earth is 50% land.  My guess on a fall zone (if over land) would be Central Asia, East Asia, Southern Europe, or the USA, pretty much in that order. The very calm solar corona these past few days will extend the reentry to, my guess, late morning to early afternoon April 1, US time. 

I kinda hope it returns to China.

For latest orbital details go to and reclick every 10 minutes for further updates  http://www.aerospace.org/CORDSuploads/TiangongStoryboard.png

To observe one more time yourself before it crashes got to www.heavens-above.org and enter your observing address and click Tiangong 1.


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The very calm solar corona has added a few more laps to the Tiangong 1 Satellite.  I estimate it will come down now over the North Africa/Mediterranean Sea/southern Europe area or the Middle East if its reentry is near Apr 2, 2018 2:00 UTC (Apr 1 7:00 pm PDT).


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