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What to do, what to do..?

Does ya ride out a documented 2nd most intense hurricane on record where yer daid-center in the middle of its currently projected path to yer location when even if it misses by fiddy miles it'll make no difference, or does ya hop onto the totally bottle-necked Interstate system in a vehicle with a full tank but not enough fuel capacity to get ya anywhere even close to an out-of-danger location -- thereby ending up marooned at an out-of-fuel truck stop that's being hammered just as hard as where you left..?

It's good to have choices, I done suppose.. :89::idunno:

Swamp

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Satellite Beach Elevation 17ft or so depending on last years tides.  Went through tropical storms up the Wazzzuuuuuu.   I can't tell you what to do but I would buy a medium bottle of Vodka and Kick Back...

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Al I was wondering today at work about what you planned to do, if you do run get yourself several gas cans and take more gas with you, and I hope you have gas cans already because you'll probably have a hard time buying any at the stores.

I still haven't decided what I'm doing but I have a bit more time to decide than you do, most of the "tracks" puts Irma right on my doorstep by Monday late and into Tuesday, just can't tell which side of the storm we may get yet, hoping for the western side and hope it stays well offshore if that's the case, but time will tell where it goes and if I run for the hills,, all depends on  the track and what catorgory it is when it gets here!!

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You can always hop the train to an inland destination.  I used to live on the East Coast and we used them a lot.  Got to get your butt high and dry first in order to come back to see what's left.  

   old Tom

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18 hours ago, homefire said:

Satellite Beach Elevation 17ft or so depending on last years tides.  Went through tropical storms up the Wazzzuuuuuu.   I can't tell you what to do but I would buy a medium bottle of Vodka and Kick Back...

More like a large bottle each of Cap't. Morgan, Patron & Johnnie Black.. For emergency consumption only.. Please refer to supplied MSDS sheets for contraindictions and treatment of possible adverse reactions should improper dispensing occur..

Tropical storms..? No bigly.. Even 'canes up to mid-cat. 2 or so can be dealt with ok.. Start getting near cat. 3 territory & beyond and everything begins to change in a hurry..

The last one we rode out as a more-or-less direct hit was Frances back in '04, which was that larger-than-Texas cat. 2 'cane wot slowly moved over us for nearly four days before she finally finished lumbering her huge-azz self outta here.. After that sucker I swore I'd never ride out anything higher than a cat. 2..

But a funny thing happened on the way to Irma.. Several funny things, actually.. Soooo, at its most basic, given the number of folks still displaced by Harv, given an already disrupted flow of fuel from refinery-to-distrib-to-retailer, given the number of people from further south of here in FL already under evacuation that're now already north of here, given the size of Irma without including intensity and given it's already nearly impossible to obtain fuel, water and bread right here right nowww -- we've already made the decision to ride it out..

The main reason for making this call, based mostly on what's mentioned above, is if Irma follows its most modeled track of mainly due north after making the turn there's pretty much no escaping her given these conditions.. If I could count on just being able to get fuel for sure along the way I'd consider making a run for it -- driving NW if the 'cane began tracking NE for example until we got to where the projected wind dropped below 35 mph, wait for the center of the 'cane to get N of our lat, then turn around n head back..

But that presents a whole other situation -- as in trying to get back into the home-20's area without being held in check for days while waiting on decisions from whichever agencies have the final say-so to finally say-so.. As a general rule that determintion usually coincides with the last day one may have been able to salvage any remnants of one's pre-hurricane life prior to them crossing forever into the totally unsalvagable zone.. So there's that..

The only leaving scenario that makes any logical sense would be where Irma's track after she makes the turn has her heading NE instead of N.. Then your heading toward Tampa or anywhere to the NW in FL will get you out of the big wind and brings a round-trip on one tank of fuel into the realm of probability.. By the same token, the further east of The Cape Irma passes the better it is for staying right where we already are..

As much as that's what I'd like to have happen the odds are extreme for this scenario taking place.. As long as Irma is tracking basically northward she is impossible-to-escape-from from our location.. So we're battening down as best we can in preparation for the ride of our life, cos it isn't gonna be any better anywhere else we can realistically get to from here given the current external existing conditions..
 

17 hours ago, Au Seeker said:

Al I was wondering today at work about what you planned to do, if you do run get yourself several gas cans and take more gas with you, and I hope you have gas cans already because you'll probably have a hard time buying any at the stores.

I still haven't decided what I'm doing but I have a bit more time to decide than you do, most of the "tracks" puts Irma right on my doorstep by Monday late and into Tuesday, just can't tell which side of the storm we may get yet, hoping for the western side and hope it stays well offshore if that's the case, but time will tell where it goes and if I run for the hills,, all depends on  the track and what catorgory it is when it gets here!!

Skip -- you're in much the same shape as we are.. Since over half the plots have Irma moving inland from right on top of you, your taking off inland wouldn't do any good.. I can only hope by the time she gets to you she's dropped to cat. 2 as they're predicting.. As of this moment though, the only thing I know for sure is this is gonna be one helluva storm..!

Swamp

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Al, Skip. Go west young men. The heat might kill you but no caines here. Heck you can even get some gold if you want. Think of it as that vacation you've been deserving

In any case stay safe. We need you guys.

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Well with the latest tracking forecast, it seems we here at my area may be spared to some degree, albeit we will some heavy rainfall, tropical storm level winds with possible higher gusts and a greater tornado threat being on the east side of the storm, so at this time I will be staying here unless something drastically changes in Irma's track and forecasted Cat level by the time it gets close to here.

That being said, Al on the other hand is getting a bit of bad news and a bit of good news, the bad news is that the forecasted track is now going to be almost centered on him, the good news is that it's forecasted to be hopefully downgraded to Cat 2 level by the time it reaches him and hopefully that holds true or even weaken even more by the time it get to him.

But Al you may even get the chance to go out if the eye goes over you for a little while and look around and say....HOLY $HIT and sing a few verses of Riding the Storm Out!!!!

Stay safe brother and keep your head down!!

 

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ERR on the side of caution as the other situation is just plain old deadly. Just my west coast take but had many relatives/friends in the gulf/florida who were taught many a bad lesson. Wish you all the luck in the world whatever ya do-John

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On 9/7/2017 at 4:52 PM, clay said:

Al, Skip. Go west young men. The heat might kill you but no caines here. 

At least it's a dry heat. 

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20 hours ago, Au Seeker said:

Well with the latest tracking forecast, it seems we here at my area may be spared to some degree, albeit we will some heavy rainfall, tropical storm level winds with possible higher gusts and a greater tornado threat being on the east side of the storm, so at this time I will be staying here unless something drastically changes in Irma's track and forecasted Cat level by the time it gets close to here.

That being said, Al on the other hand is getting a bit of bad news and a bit of good news, the bad news is that the forecasted track is now going to be almost centered on him, the good news is that it's forecasted to be hopefully downgraded to Cat 2 level by the time it reaches him and hopefully that holds true or even weaken even more by the time it get to him.

But Al you may even get the chance to go out if the eye goes over you for a little while and look around and say....HOLY $HIT and sing a few verses of Riding the Storm Out!!!!

Stay safe brother and keep your head down!!

Since the time of your posting this, Skip, the storm track has shifted westward approx. 100 mi + - -- which gets us out from underneath a dead-center hit.. Of course, I believe nothing about 'caines' projected tracking, especially when they are still this far out and especially prior to this one having yet to 'come around the corner'.. As of this moment she's still tracking westward; hasn't even begun northward march..

Assuming she tracks as predicted, it is both a good news and not-so-good news situation -- for everyone, not just for those in my immediate area.. This current projected track keeps Irma over warm water longer.. She is going to be a much stronger storm when she gets to this lat than if she came ashore at the southern tip of the mainland..

Given my druthers, I'd rather have the eye tracking closer to me as a lesser hurricane than a mere handfull of miles further away as a much stronger storm.. In the last 24 hours we've gone from a near-direct hit with winds to about 100 mph here to the eye being completely X-state with wind gusts now projected to 120+ mph..

At 100 mph this place should pretty much hold together.. At 120..?? Guess we'll find out.. With this one exception it's pretty much a toss-up for here regardless where she tracks..

Sooo, all-in-all I'd say we're both in better shape overall than we were projected a couple days ago.. Unfortunately this doesn't mean we're in particularly good shape either.. Still, I'd rather have this than what was anticipated.. GL 2U2.. Be safe..

Swamp

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Just to give everyone a better respective on the size of this storm and most major hurricanes, the storm is now centered on Naples Florida near the southern tip of Florida, I live just over 500 miles north from there and we are getting rain from the northern most rain bands and have been for the last 2 hours, just a light to moderate periodic rain with a slight breeze.

Al lives around 300 miles south of me so he's now getting close to having sustained hurricane force winds, and has been getting continous rain for some time now.

The only good thing is that usually when these hurricanes turn north as this one has they most often pick up forward speed as they continue north, and the more they stay in contact with land decrease in strength, hopefully this holds true with this storm, the bad part is a hurricane is a water machine and as they decrease in strength over land they start dumping vast amount of rainfall as they move inland, which isn't usually all that bad if the storm keeps moving forward at a fast pace, it helps farmers a lot in drought areas, but as in the case of Houston Texas if the storm stalls out it can be devastating causing major flooding, while the high winds from hurricanes cause a good bit of damage, it's the flooding that is the most destructive force when they come ashore.

 

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I lived in south east Florida (Boca, Delray, & Boynton) for about 20 years and went through 5 hurricanes including  the last Category 5 hurricane Andrew.
I escaped in a motorhome in 2004 because I knew that sooner or later a hurricane like this was going to come and tear up the whole state. Those who evacuated south Florida had to go roughly 500 miles to get to Georgia and, as you can see, that isn't far enough. There will be horror stories about people who evacuated and got stuck for some reason and had to ride out the storm in their car. 
The aftermath is almost as bad as the storm. It's hot and humid and there's no power. No phones. The stores are all closed up. The roads are littered with trees and other debris. You are stuck. 
I feel sorry for those who are going through this catastrophe and am praying for them. 

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I grew up in Florida and left there at the end of the 70s to go back every year or more until about 2014.  When I was growing up there you heard about the last great hurricanes and I experienced a few in the 60s and 70s.  People knew where to build and where not to build based upon the damage from the previous storms.  You mostly took care of yourself and your neighbors by sawing up all the downed trees and fixing the roofs.  

The biggest difference between now and then is that there is just MORE of everything in Florida.  There are more people, there are more buildings, there is more value and there are more bad building practices on beaches and flood zones. (There are also more idiots.)  This will result in more damage, destruction and a higher price tag to fix it up.

When we had hurricanes in the past the biggest concern seemed to be fixing up A1A after a big blow.  Jacksonville Beach remained in a shambles with only building foundations until in the 80s and 90s.  Other places rebuilt and the new construction allows for the waves to go through the first two floors of many of the oceanfront condos.  I was amazed a few years back when I drove through Panama City Beach and saw condos built 50 yards from the high tide line.  You can't build them that way on the east coast (at least north of Ft. Pierce) because the open Atlantic is a fierce baby.

Irma has tracked the west coast of Florida which has saved a lot of damage.  It could have been much worse.

If I was back in Florida, I would probably go to work on a temporary basis for FEMA because I've written agricultural disaster loans before.  They will need some of that now but probably need more of it in Houston.

Mitchel

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54 minutes ago, Bill Southern said:

Yeah that...... Hey Swamp :idunno:

 

I saw he was on the forum a while after the major part of the storm was passed him and it was starting to hit hard up here, so I sure he's still alive, but I was wondering how he made it otherwise.

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Just a quick update while I can:

Lost power Sun about 10:15 PM while eye was still 100 mi S.. That was while still being hammered with all those tornado alerts rolling onshore @ CC/CCB then zipping over PSJ heading inland.. Actually the lot next to me & my neighbor on the other side of it got twisted up a bit -- she had her shed disintegrate and a couple of trees in the field got twisted up n uprooted..

Had power come back on about 8 A Mon so was thinking yeah this is good -- but that only lasted an hour and then gone again.. We've been on generator on-n-off since..

Nora just now somehow managed to get the laptops working on generator power, so slamming this out while possible..

FPL reports 370,000 customers lost  power in Brevard Co.. They are saying everyone on the east coast should have power by the end of the week.. I have no idea what that means for us though, since we did have power & they cut it off to repair deeper in the grid.. Guess I should conserve fuel until I can get out of the 'hood to see if there's any available locally..

Most of the damage back in here is trees n things, shingles, bits n pieces etc.. Havent seen any major destruction, but then again I haven't been off the block yet either so still in the dark about pretty much everything.. Radio is useless.. No smartphone either.. Hopefully N is checking out the bigger picture while I'm doing this n taking a break from moving chunk-o-trees to the curb..

Hope  you weathered it out ok, Skip -- & anyone else here in the SE..

Swamp

Edited by Swampstomper Al
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Glad to hear you made it through with minimal damage and no flooding. I was out in TX supporting the Harvey search and rescue and it was a mess with all the flooding. Hope your power comes back soon.

DP

Edited by Desertpilot
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Hey Y'all - Quick post when I can.. Not reading other threads, barely this one, so may sound disjointed..

All I know is we right  here really lucked out & looks like Skip did too. Major damage all directions from here, especially south.. Hard finding usable info -- it's almost all pix of trashed stuff..

Was able to score 10 gal for generator last evening but that isn't gonna do much good if I can't change oil real soon.. I'm pretty sure oil isn't supposed to be the same color & viscosity as soot..

I realize there are many many folks in a whole lot worse shape than we are here, but it is making me just a bit crazy there's power 2 blocks from here on out to US1.. Doesn't seem like it would take all that much to bring the rest of the 'hood back into the grid.. That would free up a buncha people to get out n  help instead of havin' to stay around the home-20 to keep an eye on these strange vehicles cruizin' around.. We know what they're looking & waiting for..

Anyhow, doin' the best we can with what we do have, we being the Royal we.. Easily coulda been a whole lot worse..

Swamp 

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