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Knock knock.. Who's there..? Matthew..


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Well this is quite the turn of events.. I was ok with just Skip needing to evacuate (j/k, Skip..) But suddenly the 'cane will no longer be 200 miles, or even 80 miles off-shore when it goes spinning by, more like he's now knocking on my front door.. BOO..!

'They' still don't know exactly where Matthew is going to make initial US landfall, or if indeed he even will.. But it's certainly looking more and more like a FL landfall is in the cards.. One of the mentioned possible locations is Port Canaveral.. This is simply a tad too close for comfort methinks, b'wak b'wak.. I said I was looking forward to new cuts in the beach sand dunes, not new cuts as in bodily flesh wounds..

Due to Matthew's continuing westward shift we've deceided to ride it out, mainly because there's no place to run for safety in either van on one tank of gas.. For all intent and purpose there is no retail fuel left anywhere on the eastern side of the state, a scenario probably repeated N at least to VA if not beyond.. Actually my best guess for the closest no-wait-in-line fuel right now would be Pensacola, possibly Mobile..

Good shape vittles & water.. About 24 hours worth of generator fuel, 4X that by robbing the vans.. Need to board the windows still.. As long as the gusts don't get much over 125 mph for extended periods we'll be just as good here as anywhere..

Swamp

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Al, let us know how you do riding it out as soon as you can.

I don't think I'm leaving as I mentioned during the last storm, plenty of supplies, more than one generator, plenty of gas, etc., I'm still watching the path for any surprises as Matthew advances northwards and if it begans looks really, really bad and I seriously consider leaving it won't be at least until 3 or so hours before landfall, then I'd drive further inland 50 to 75 miles, wait 2 to 3 hours and return if possible.

No matter what was going to happen I was going to work at least through Thursday, but the boss and everyone else started freaking out about prepping to evacuate and getting out of town sooner than later (I'm always ready to bug out if I need too and can be ready to hit the road within an hour or less)  so we closed up the shop before noon yesterday, put trailers, trucks inside, got everything hard/costly to replace inside either in the trailers or up off the floor at least 2 to 3 feet in case of flooding and we all left for the home front around 11:00 am.

I had about half tank of fuel in the Suburban so decided to fill up, all gas prices were up 5 to 10 cents from the day before and even though almost all the stations had gas they only had high octane left, had to pay 60 cents more per gallon to fill up :2mo5pow:, such is the case where there are many vacationers leaving in a panic, I'm hoping the Suburban appreciates the gourmet beverage and give me a little better gas mileage on this tank full, :idunno:

Our Governor in her vast wisdom mandated a coastal evacuation Monday afternoon well before anywhere in Florida or coastal Georgia, thus my fellow worker's panic and fuel shortages, which I guess was a good thing other than the gas issues because it gets all the clueless visitors and others who have never experienced a tropical storm much less a hurricane out of the way and off the roads well in advance of when I would go if the crap really hits the fan!!

I never panic over anything, but I have family in Macon who always panic for me and always begs me to leave at times like this and come up there, when may kids were very young I did so a couple of times, not wise to risk trouble with babies to consider, I also have family in Florida down around Sebring but they never worry about me since they are veterans of many storms and hurricanes and know I will do what I need to do in the situation. 

 

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5 hours ago, Swampstomper Al said:

.

Good shape vittles & water.. About 24 hours worth of generator fuel, 

Swamp

 How far above sea level /the coastline/barrier islands are you? Good luck to you and yours.

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The average elevations in Florida are between 3 to 6 feet above sea level, there are several places that are much higher up to 90 to 300+ feet, but most of those are in the panhandle area of northwest Florida where there are actual hills.

That being said the good thing for the eastern Florida coast is that the ocean floor drops off to deep water very close to shore, which reduces the threat of high storm surges, they are predicting possible storm surges of around 3' to 5' for some of Florida's eastern coastline, the further offshore the storm is the lesser the threat, and the further you are inland the less chance the storm surge will affect you.

Inland the biggest threat of flooding from a hurricane is from the rain, which can be as much as 5", 10" to 15" of rain depending on how fast the storm is moving, if it stops and remain stationary for a time you can get even more rain,

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Skip -- I do the same thing and I'd typed the same thing about being able to wait until the last minute to haul asp if necessary, then took it out.. If things start looking too severe I'm < 2 mi from I-95, then < 2 mi from The Beach Line (SR528 @ limited access,) both roads will be empty and I can be in SW Orlando on I-4 in < an hour, Tampa in < 2 hr.. So I can bug out if really necessary, stay ahead of the wind field, get that 50 - 115 mi cushion, cut impact by 50% or so and be back at the house immediately afterwards too.. I have a generator, a land line and DSL, so even if we lose power while staying I should still be able to let you know how the ride was..

WH - I'm W of the Indian River about equidistant between US1 & I-95 at a whopping elevation of 35 feet above sea level.. That doesn't sound like much, but everywhere around me will flood before my place will.. Yeah, I'd become an island, but it would take a whole lot more water before I'd flood too..

Swamp

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1 hour ago, Swampstomper Al said:

 both roads will be empty ,,,or so and be back at the house immediately afterwards too.

  HOw can you be so sure of no gridlock?  And what about debris   in the roadways?  Got chainsaw/ towrope/chain/axe?4wd?

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14 minutes ago, weaver hillbille said:

  HOw can you be so sure of no gridlock?  And what about debris   in the roadways?  Got chainsaw/ towrope/chain/axe?4wd?

I'm not sure about Al, but I been there done that and know that almost everyone that is leaving has left long before I do, I usually never see much traffic, even leaving a couple of hours before land fall you wouldn't see much debris on the roadways yet, but yes I do take a chainsaw, hoists and chains, etc. when I leave, but not to use on the way out but instead on the way back in after the storm passes, nothing but high water or LEOs will stop my return to my home ASAP.

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33 minutes ago, Au Seeker said:

I'm not sure about Al, but I been there done that and know that almost everyone that is leaving has left long before I do, I usually never see much traffic, even leaving a couple of hours before land fall you wouldn't see much debris on the roadways yet, but yes I do take a chainsaw, hoists and chains, etc. when I leave, but not to use on the way out but instead on the way back in after the storm passes, nothing but high water or LEOs will stop my return to my home ASAP.

Hey, AU Seeker. What's a LEO?

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46 minutes ago, weaver hillbille said:

  HOw can you be so sure of no gridlock?  And what about debris   in the roadways?  Got chainsaw/ towrope/chain/axe?4wd?

Because Skip.. Set up the same here.. No FWD tho..

Swamp

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4 minutes ago, Shokmelt said:

Batten the hatches and furl the sails, Al...and don't get swamped (if you'll pardon the pun).

HA..!

Actually, I am going against previously stated grain following the hurricanes of '04 & '05.. I'd always said I would evacuate for a Cat 3 and higher.. Now that one's in my front yard I'm not going to do so.. Circumstances and thought processes mainly.. The #1 reason is due to how long it took for them to finally say this bad boy is NOT gonna shift back to the east.. By then the barrier islands had already been evacuated, and a few phone calls let me know I could forget about any motel rooms under $200 & large change.. Secondly the homestead hadn't been prepped one bit.. Following those previously mentioned hurricanes I did end up dumping some $$s into upgrading some structurals, especially the roof.. So after the motel blow-offs, as I thought about things I came to the conclusion if this place won't make it through neither will anything else (other than high end) built since the '70s.. I deceided to trust my improvements & upgrades over newer original construction.. I've watched 'em build most of those places and I never saw a-one where I said I'd live there based on skeletal integrity and materials being used..

Swamp

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Just take it easy, go detect the beach cuts, when the going gets tough, the tough get to the beach to get the booty.  No just kidding, stay safe, hunker down, hope for the best. Grubstake

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Wife is trying to get out of Orlando, with 10,000 other Registered Nurses, who were attending their national conference down there. Obviously they cancelled the conference, but not until everybody was already there for a day - ouch! Just talked to her. She is at the airport drinking wine with about 40-other nurses booked on a 6:15pm flight back to New York. She says they have announced the airport will close at 8pm.

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4 hours ago, grubstake said:

Just take it easy, go detect the beach cuts, when the going gets tough, the tough get to the beach to get the booty.  No just kidding, stay safe, hunker down, hope for the best. Grubstake

That's top-of-the-list reason I stayed, Grubstake: Front-of-the-line access to the Treasure Coast beaches.. We've been waiting four years for a good churn along the Treasure Coast to hopefully expose some Spanish gold..

Seriously though, considering the newly elevated storm surge levels being predicted, unless you've defied evacuation orders and ridden the storm out beach side it could be days before anyone's allowed back onto the barrier islands.. If that's how it plays out it wouldn't matter if you've stayed here or are a thousand miles evacuated, because no one is going to get to the beach "first" unless you're already there..

25 minutes ago, Terry Soloman said:

She is at the airport drinking wine with about 40-other nurses booked on a 6:15pm flight back to New York. She says they have announced the airport will close at 8pm.

That's correct.. She is definitely on one of the last flights out.. They began announcing last evening the airport would shut down @ 8PM Thursday based on storm track speed prediction..

She should be in good shape.. At the moment it is definitely the calm before the storm.. It isn't even windy here right now (I'm about 40 miles east of the airport,) and her flight is off the ground in a half hour.. The only places it's windy at the moment is along the coast and within the onshore squalls.. That's all gonna change big dawg in a few hours though..

Swamp

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10 hours ago, Swampstomper Al said:


WH - I'm W of the Indian River about equidistant between US1 & I-95 at a whopping elevation of 35 feet above sea level.. That doesn't sound like much, but everywhere around me will flood before my place will.. Yeah, I'd become an island, but it would take a whole lot more water before I'd flood too..

Swamp

 I'd be tempted to stay, too, given your level of prep.  It always take  forever for "authorities" to 'allow' folks back in to an area.  Meanwhile, looters have a fielday.

      If you have a good shelter, water, food, a way to cook, why not hunker down... Too many people in this country depend on the gov't for protection when they should be self sufficient.

      I hope  you incorporated hurricane clips on your truss/wall connections, when you upgraded, and have the windows boarded up already.  I've also read about 6 nail method for asphalt shingles in my roofing research for my own house... I assume you  can get a mattress or two into an interior bathroom if the stuff hits the fan/roof flies off.  ANd I hope you read this long after the storm passes or your prep chores are done- "banter" on the web should be the last thing on your mind, now.

 

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  Here's the PC warning for those not prepped. SHepard Sthmith's:tisk-tisk::evil1: warning(  yur gonna be dead if it moves onshore)

 Which may be quite true, if living in a  mobil or manf home or stick built  from earlier days when standards weren't so high.  Even with new standards, contractors/subs still cut corners if on a tight schedule.

 I wouldn't consider buying a house in the SUnshine state that wasn't concrete block( or similar) and with the latest/strongest roofing materials incorporated.

Edited by weaver hillbille
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  It looks like the eye skirted a few miles off the Space Coast ,which should have blunted it's effects, somewhat.

HOpefully , after power is restored, we'll get an update.

On 10/6/2016 at 7:47 AM, Au Seeker said:

I'm not sure about Al, but I been there done that

 Are you  in a flood prone/potential storm surge area?

Edited by weaver hillbille
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 I'm hoping Al did well, can't wait to hear from him, they most likely lost all power and possibly internet, from what I'm seeing the storm surge hit many places in Florida hard, good thing he's on high ground.

We are starting to get some of the major rains and winds now, it's a good thing it's been downgraded to a Cat 2, should be a Cat 1 by the time the eye gets here..

I'm on some of the highest ground in this area and about 20 miles inland, but there are tidal creeks and rivers all around but not real close to me, so I won't get flooded, but the main part of Matthew will be going by right off the beaches at high tide, the storm surge predictions for here aren't good at all, I might be on an island in the morning!!

 

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Howdy,

Read the last added messages to the thread first before beginning to type, so here goes:

Seriously lucked out here.. Actually, IMHO I'd say everyone N of where Matthew took that slight eastward jog lucked out.. That add'l 15 - 30 mile cushion prevented billions in property damages and a much higher loss of life.. While there may be 1M folks without power right now, I hope they are smart enough to realize that is now the worst of their worries instead of one of their least..

The two most major luck-outs right here were no loss of power other than blips and 20 - 30 mph lower wind velocity (my guesstimate..) I'd say it still got into the upper 70 - lower 80 mph range for a couple hours or more, but that sure beats the heck out of the 100+ mph out on the tip of Cape Canaveral < 15 air miles east.. Right now I'd say we're still pretty steady in the lower 30s, down from around 50 mph six hours ago..

A cursory property damage check is limited to half a tree that snapped off in the 'right' direction instead on top of one of the vans and of all silly things about 2/3 of the roof vent -- and a couple dumpsters worth of twigs, branches etc.. Tomorrow will tell a more complete story..

Skip -- I think you should be in pretty good shape.. To me it doesn't appear Matthew will be able to regain a full head of steam.. I'd say the worst will be in the form of coastal and near-coastal flooding -- at least as long as the eye remains off-shore.. If it makes landfall, even in its weakened condition, all bets are off.. Here's hoping for as smooth a ride as possible..!

Swamp

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